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2024-12-13 16:47:43
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First of all, I have to say that the market has really taught me a lot these two days. News comes one after another, and good news keeps appearing. I once lost confidence in technology today. And as we all know, these two days are the time for heavy meetings, and the frequent news makes the short-term technical analysis almost ineffective.First of all, I have to say that the market has really taught me a lot these two days. News comes one after another, and good news keeps appearing. I once lost confidence in technology today. And as we all know, these two days are the time for heavy meetings, and the frequent news makes the short-term technical analysis almost ineffective.


First, in terms of time relationship, tomorrow will be the 13th trading day from the low point to the high point (assuming the high point occurs in the intraday trading tomorrow). 13 is a typical Fibonacci dial number. On the 13th day, it is easy to produce the inflection point. Moreover, we can find that the last downtrend band took 14 trading days to reach the low point. According to the symmetry theory, the current uptrend band will probably take 13~14 trading days to reach the top of the stage.Back to the topic, why do you judge this? Three specific reasons:Of course, I have to say that in the last two trading days, my prediction has been severely hit in the face by the market. And the market has been very strong recently. From a technical point of view, when there is a great probability of falling, the market abruptly pulls two positive lines. So my point of view is not necessarily correct. It only represents my personal shallow thinking about the market. Does not represent any investment advice.


First of all, I have to say that the market has really taught me a lot these two days. News comes one after another, and good news keeps appearing. I once lost confidence in technology today. And as we all know, these two days are the time for heavy meetings, and the frequent news makes the short-term technical analysis almost ineffective.Third, I have been worried that the CSI 2000 index and the micro-cap stock index, which have been rising continuously, are at risk of a pullback. In fact, this morning, we saw signs of weakness in the trend of small-cap stocks, but they were finally pulled up by the main force to turn the tide. Although turning the corner, it can't hide the fact that small and micro-cap stocks have risen too high. I have repeatedly said that these small-cap stocks need to be adjusted! Just like the story of the wolf coming, everyone may think that it is not, because everyone has not seen the adjustment of small and micro-stocks. But the story of the wolf coming, the final result is "the wolf really came." We still need to clearly understand that the CSI 2000 Index, the daily wedge structure, the top deviation of the daily index, the breakdown of the upper rail of the daily bollinger Band index, etc., are some signals that indicate serious overbought in the short term.Second, the market will encounter an obvious pressure point tomorrow. Please look at the chart below, the daily chart of the Shanghai Composite Index. In the picture, I use three color lines to mark the short-term pressure lines respectively.

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